Updated model shows benefits of breeding management could potentially outweigh negative impact of climate change. Global food security forecasts could be improved by incorporating advances in livestock and climate science, a modelling study suggests.The benefits of informed breeding may outweigh the impact of climate change on food supplies, results show.Accounting for the effects of heat stress and advances in livestock breeding science could improve forecasts of food production and its associated environmental impact, research suggests.The research aims to improve understanding of how livestock could contribute to future global food security, as demand for food increases while climate change places growing pressure on agricultural production.Food security forecastRoslin researchers sought to understand how accounting for the benefits of advances in livestock science coupled with the negative effects of climate change could alter projections of the future global food system.The benefits of genomic selection, which uses DNA insights to support breeding for desirable traits, outweighed projected losses from heat stress, substantially altering forecasts of food production, greenhouse gas emissions and land use, the findings of a preliminary analysis show.This proof-of-concept study underscores the importance of accounting for advances in livestock science in economic forecasts used to inform food security and climate policy.Economic modellingExperts use global economic models to explore how food systems respond to challenges such as climate change, population growth and changing diets. These projections can inform decisions on agriculture, trade and environmental policy.Current models do not fully capture developments in livestock science that could affect future production, the research team says. Livestock innovationResearchers updated an established global economic model to account for the negative effects of heat stress on livestock productivity and feed efficiency, and the benefits of genomic selection. Genomic selection was chosen as an example of an established livestock technology with the potential to deliver cumulative improvements in animal productivity.The revised model suggests that advances in livestock science could have a greater influence on future food availability, land use and greenhouse gas emissions than is captured by current models. Incorporating livestock science into global forecasting models could help provide more realistic evidence for policymakers as they consider future food production and climate strategies, researchers argue.This research was published in Discover Sustainability, in collaboration with colleagues from Wageningen University, the University of Stirling, and the Czech University of Life Sciences. We chose to model genomic selection and heat stress because they represent two opposing pressures on future livestock production. Climate change is already having a negative impact on productivity, while advances in breeding offer opportunities to improve it.“By bringing both into the same model, we can begin to understand how these competing effects could shape future food production and whether advances in livestock science could offset some of the impacts of climate change. Dr Masoud Ghaderi Zefreh, Core Scientist Related linksResearch publication Tags News Roslin This article was published on Friday 14 August 2026
