Project Overview and Outcomes

Project video, publications and engagement activities

Project Overview 

Watch our short video introduction to the project and its key objectives.

The TRADE project aims to transform the debate around livestock systems and foster sustainable food system outcomes through a multi-faceted approach. By integrating stakeholder engagement, system modelling, and research on both production and consumption aspects, TRADE seeks to identify viable pathways for a sustainable and equitable livestock sector. Below are the summaries of the key work packages contributing to this goal:

WP1: Narrative Synthesis and Stakeholder Engagement for Sustainable Livestock Futures

WP1 involves a comprehensive synthesis of narratives and stakeholder engagement to understand potential livestock future pathways. It includes a published paper on Worldviews, values and perspectives towards the future of the livestock sector and upcoming papers with a global and UK-based review of sustainable livestock literature. Additionally, stakeholder workshops are being conducted to co-design Shared Socio-Economic Pathways for UK livestock systems (UK-Livestock-SSPs), bringing together participants from industry, policy, and the third sector. Stakeholder mapping and key informant interviews were conducted to inform workshop design and ensure diverse representation. This work package also includes a forthcoming paper on public engagement through serious games, focusing on fostering dialogue and critical thinking about sustainable agri-food futures.

WP2: Assessing Production-Side Innovations for Sustainable Livestock Breeding

WP2 assesses production-side innovations aimed at enhancing sustainable livestock breeding. It includes a forthcoming paper on a modified Delphi study with key actors in the livestock breeding community, exploring novel technologies and the factors influencing their uptake, such as target producers, costs, benefits, readiness, and barriers. This work also identifies areas where investment is most urgently needed to drive impactful change within the sector.

WP3: Consumption-Side Analysis: Meat and Dairy Consumption Patterns and Substitution Behaviours

This work package examines meat and dairy consumption patterns, and consumer behaviours related to sustainability, primarily using national surveys such as the UK-wide National Diet and Nutrition Survey and the Scottish Health Survey. For example, we recently explored whether declines in UK meat consumption are driven by meat-free days, meals, or smaller portion sizes and reviews meat substitution behaviours. It includes a published paper on Smaller meat portions contribute the most to reducing meat consumption in the United Kingdom.

WP4: System Modelling: Exploring Scenarios and Interactions in Livestock Futures

WP4 uses the socio-economic Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) to explore potential outcomes of various narrative scenarios involving production- and consumption-side innovations. This work package identifies trade-offs, responses, and cross-scale interactions within the livestock system. The insights gained contribute to understanding the dynamic relationships within the sector and inform policy and decision-making for sustainable livestock futures. Upcoming papers will explore the interpretation of policy targets under different value perspectives, including how technology and efficiency improvements from the livestock sector may develop using data from WP2, and explore, using modelling, metrics describing socio-economic and bio-physical outcomes.

 

Publications and Pending Papers

Blair, K.J., Moran, D., and Alexander, P. 2024.

Published in Agriculture and Human Values, 41(1), pp.91-108.

Read the full paper

The livestock sector is under increasing pressure to respond to numerous sustainability and health challenges related to the production and consumption of livestock products. However, political and market barriers and conflicting worldviews and values across the environmental, socio-economic and political domains have led to considerable sector inertia, and government inaction. The processes that lead to the formulation of perspectives in this space, and that shape action (or inaction), are currently under-researched. This paper presents results of a mixed methods exploration of the influence of environmental worldviews, values, and demographic factors on perspectives towards the future of the livestock sector. The approach combines survey and interview data derived from a sample of livestock representatives (N = 307). Respondents with higher pro-environmental, ecocentric and relational worldviews and values favour more behaviour-oriented solutions. Those with lower pro-environmental and higher techno-centric worldviews and values favour technological solutions to improve the efficiency of production and to enable continued patterns of meat consumption. Demographic variation and qualitative data emphasise the need to recognise cultural and geographic nuance in narratives. This study improves our understanding of the processes that lead to the formulation of perspectives, enabling the development of more holistic solutions that acknowledge all voices in an increasingly polarised debate. Adopting more pluralistic, relational methodologies will therefore be paramount in developing solutions for sustainable livestock futures.


Vonderschmidt, A., Jaacks, L.M., Alexander, P., Green, R., Bellows, A.L. and Stewart, C. 2024. 

Published in Nature Food, pp.1-6.

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Reducing meat consumption can help improve environmental and health outcomes, yet the effect of specific meat-reducing strategies is context dependent. Here, using decomposition analysis of National Diet and Nutrition Survey data (2008–2009 to 2018–2019), we found that in the United Kingdom, reduced meat portions had the largest impact on total meat consumption decline (52%), followed by fewer meat-eating days (24%), fewer meat consumers (17%) and fewer meat-eating meal occasions (7%). Understanding meat consumption behaviour patterns is key for more effective policies.


Glenk, K., Liebe, U., Burns, J. and Thomson, S. 2024. 

Published in Q Open, 4(2), qoae016.

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Agricultural support payments are a significant position in public budgets, and the legitimacy of such payments is subject to continuing debate. The legitimacy rests on the social acceptance of citizens for support payments to farmers, which is the focus of this study. Social acceptance is investigated using evaluations of farm and farmer descriptions in a factorial survey experiment. The results reveal higher acceptance of payments for farms demonstrating enhanced animal welfare, biodiversity, and a lower carbon footprint. The acceptance of support payments is negatively associated with payment amount, but payments to farmers who are financially struggling are more accepted than payments to profitable farmers; indicating respondent preferences that align with the need justice principle. Study findings can be used to inform priorities for legitimate policies of agricultural support schemes, to identify areas of consensus or disagreement regarding social acceptance of support, and to facilitate effective communication on agricultural support policy.


Blair, K.J., Moran, D., Alexander, P., et al. [In draft]

The livestock sector is confronted with significant sustainability challenges related to health and the environment, necessitating a shift towards more sustainable practices and future scenarios.  Understanding the existing body of literature on sustainable livestock futures is crucial for informing policy-making and facilitating transformative change. This systematic literature review employs novel text mining techniques to examine the dominant themes, trends, and regional variation of research in this domain. Results indicate that emissions reduction and environmental impacts in agriculture are the dominant research themes, framing problems and solutions around production, greenhouse gas emissions, other environmental impacts, and cost efficiency. In contrast, less research is dedicated to meat consumption and alternatives, which frames problems and solutions around consumption and the environmental, health and ethical dimensions of different protein sources. Breeding and genetics and economics and farm management are also less researched but overlap with other themes, also framing problems and solutions around production, emissions, environmental impacts, and cost efficiency. The analysis shows regional differences in research priorities for sustainable livestock futures. The United States, the United Kingdom, China, and Australia lead across various themes, such as emissions reduction and environmental impacts, with other countries also making significant contributions to specific niches. Implications of these findings include knowledge gaps, imbalances in solutions, and a lack of comprehensive evidence for policy decisions. Overall, a holistic approach that considers both production systems and consumption aspects is needed to develop comprehensive and sustainable solutions. By critically evaluating framing devices, stakeholders can engage in more informed discussions and make evidence-based decisions for transformative change.


Blair, K.J., Fletcher, I., Burns, J., et al. [In draft]

The UK livestock sector is facing environmental and socio-economic challenges related to climate change, public health, and animal welfare. Negotiating a future pathway for the sector requires consensus on how we address inevitable societal trade-offs that arise when addressing these challenges. This study offers a framework that accommodates diverse perspectives and anticipates future uncertainties. We apply an adapted version of the IPCC Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) framework, which outlines potential future developments across various sectors, to develop scenarios specific to the UK livestock sector (UK-Livestock-SSPs). In a series of stakeholder workshops, we work with industry, policy and third sectors participants to identify key drivers of change in the UK livestock sector, including government regulation, technology, and market trends. These are mapped onto UK-SSP narratives while also producing sector-specific system diagrams. Outputs will include qualitative narratives, system diagrams, and semi-quantitative trends that can be integrated into system models, all of which can collectively inform policy, support industry decisions, and guide future research. This study also advances the field of scenario co-design by demonstrating the application of SSPs in sector-specific contexts by industry experts.


Blair, K.J., Alexander, P., Burns, J., Fletcher, I., et al. [In draft]

The future of agri-food systems requires meaningful public engagement to navigate the conflicting views on solutions to what has been termed a polycrisis, which includes concerns about malnutrition, biodiversity, and climate change. This presentation showcases the impact of a public engagement initiative. We use ‘serious games’ methodology to explore alternative agri-food futures, highlighting the potential roles of livestock. These games engage diverse audiences in real-world simulations, navigating decisions with political, behavioural, and technological dimensions, and their environmental, socio-economic, health and wellbeing consequences. This approach fosters reflection and critical thinking through immediate feedback on their actions. We discuss our iterative design process, which includes upcoming focus groups aimed at further refining the games. The resources developed through this initiative can be used in future education and public engagement settings, such as university courses, school outreach, festivals, and community events, to foster dialogue among decision-makers, stakeholders and the public about sustainable agri-food futures. This work contributes to understanding the potential role of ‘serious games’ in public engagement, assessing their impact on improving understanding of complex systems and fostering dialogue on pathways to equitable, resilient, and sustainable agri-food systems.


Chase-Topping, M. et al. [In draft]

Smart animal breeding using novel technologies can have a central role in sustainable livestock production and food security, but implementation requires careful consideration of feasibility, cost and societal and regulatory constraints. We used a modified Delphi study to gather panelists’ opinions on promising technologies for meeting 4 sustainability goals (SGs): high productivity and product quality, high animal health and welfare, low carbon footprint and maintenance of genetic diversity. The study consisted of a booklet describing the technology groups and an online questionnaire. Technologies were ranked, first based on technological feasibility, but then considering cost and consumer and regulatory aspects. Panelists included representatives from major breeding companies, breed societies, levy boards and expert advisors of major UK farmed animal species. Ninety-one panelists were identified, 44 (48%) responded. Expert panel members ranked omics, precision farming tools and predictive analytics as the top technologies. The top technologies did not change even after considering cost and societal acceptance. Cost was considered the main barrier for most technologies. The study provides an insight for scientists, funders, and livestock producers regarding the future use of technologies for next generation animal breeding.


Burns, J., Chase-Topping, De Oliveira Silva, R. M., Eory, V., Rydhmer, L., Wilson, A., Zira, S. [authors alphabetical for now] [In draft]

Climate change will impact on livestock systems across Europe (and globally), affecting many measures of efficiency, including the technical performance of animals, the economics of the farm, and the environmental performance of production. This chapter will synthesise research on how climate change has, and will continue to, create new breeding pressures from across the livestock system, which is directing new research agendas as stakeholders figure out best practice in meeting system challenges. We also review research that offer opportunities for adaptation to- and mitigation of- climate change impacts, particularly with respect to breeding interventions. Implementing selection for novel resilience traits (or selecting resilient breeds) is increasingly important, and offers the livestock sector value that spans economic, environmental, and social goals. However, ultimately the response of the livestock sector will require care to ensure actions are aligned with wider societal goals.


Burns, J., Alexander, P., and Moran, D. [In draft]

Livestock are increasingly central to planetary health debates, most prominently for their associated greenhouse gas emissions, but also for social costs related to human nutrition, potential zoonoses, animal welfare and land use change. There is consensus around the need for livestock systems transformation to address these costs, but this agenda needs to be guided by a clearer view of system sustainability, trade-offs, and political economy. We identify ten barriers to focus discussion on key sustainability challenges faced by producers, consumers and market stakeholders. We suggest solutions and outline reasons for obfuscation and resistance to change. 


Burns, J., Glenk, K., Potts, J., Villeneuva, A. [authors alphabetical for now] [In draft]

Agricultural support payments represent a substantial transfer from taxpayers while having considerable influence on the food system. Against a backdrop of increasing scrutiny on agricultural subsidies, devolved UK governments are in the midst of the greatest policy overhaul in five decades as they reform a system of support payments previously administered under the EU CAP. But successful and legitimate policies require insight about the public’s preferences, for which evidence is substantially lacking. We explore public prioritisation of objectives for a future agricultural support scheme in Scotland using the Best-Worst Scaling approach and a novel experimental design that enabled us to capture preferences for 16 potential policy objectives. The survey reveals that a representative sample of the Scottish public have coherent, internally consistent visions for agricultural policy. With 92.5% of the sample supportive of subsidies in general, the most important objective at the sample level was the production of high quality and safe food. But substantial preference heterogeneity exists, mirroring ongoing academic and policy debates around multifunctional agriculture and broad food system transformation targeting rural livelihoods and environmental objectives that map onto land sharing versus land sparing principles.


Burns, J., Alexander, P. et al. [In draft]

Positive scenarios that value nature from multiple perspectives are fundamental for re-establishing society’s role in the biosphere, including responsibilities towards natural resource management, biodiversity and habitat maintenance, and relevant aspects of societal functioning, organisation and governance. However, as worldviews and values are informed by- and dynamic to- the evolving polycrisis facing our world, the role of humans and expectations of how society should develop is contingent on the value perspective of the conceptualiser, even for reimaginings with a common goal to prioritize both human and environmental health.

Highlights

  • We use scenarios to demonstrate that the interpretation of KM-GBF targets is contingent on value perspective
  • Scenario development was informed by global land system and biodiversity experts
  • We discuss areas of key difference and commonality between scenarios, including nuance at different scales of implementation
  • We illustrate the policy relevance of our scenarios using a spatial prioritisation procedure for global land protection

Burns, J., Alexander, P. et al. [In draft]